ROI Case File No.201 | 'The Wayward Investment in Central Asian Logistics'

Chapter 1: The Dawn of a New Investigation—Prelude to Volume XV

Three months had passed since the conclusion of Volume XIV, "Challenge to the Infinite Universe." ROI Detective Agency received inquiries from around the world daily. However, the client who knocked on the door of 221B Baker Street today brought a different kind of case.

"Detective, our problem isn't of cosmic proportions."

Tanaka Akira, representing CentralLogistics' management as Planning Director, spoke with an exhausted expression. In his hands, he clutched a map of Central Asian logistics routes.

"Riding the New Silk Road initiative, we invested a total of 20 billion yen over five years. Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan... We envisioned a grand logistics network."

Tanaka's voice carried both remnants of past excitement and present bewilderment.

"But the numbers don't add up. Investment keeps growing while revenue fails to keep pace. What did we do wrong?"

I examined his materials. The scale was indeed grand. But there was a familiar scent of trap in the air.

Chapter 2: The Investment Maze—Truth Illuminated by PPM

"Mr. Tanaka, I'd like to review your company's investment portfolio."

Holmes spoke quietly. Tanaka pulled out a thick file and spread it across the table.

Investment Track Record: - Kazakhstan Logistics Center: 4.5 billion yen (30% utilization rate) - Uzbekistan Transportation Hub: 3.8 billion yen (45% utilization rate) - Kyrgyzstan Customs Support System: 2.2 billion yen (15% utilization rate) - Central Asian Human Resource Development Program: 3.5 billion yen (impact measurement difficult) - Digital Logistics Platform: 6.0 billion yen (development suspended)

"This is..." I gasped involuntarily.

Each project was left in a half-finished state. Investment amounts were massive, but clear revenue plans were nowhere to be seen. It was like being lost in a maze.

"Mr. Tanaka, may I ask frankly: what criteria were used for these investment decisions?"

Tanaka smiled bitterly.

"Actually... we had no clear criteria. We proceeded based on intuitive judgments like 'the New Silk Road is a growth sector' and 'we'll fall behind if we don't invest now.'"

Chapter 3: PPM Reveals Resource Waste—Truth Hidden in the Constellation

⬜️ ChatGPT | Catalyst of Vision

"PPM is a map that draws business constellations. Pour too much light on dark stars, and the whole system dims."

🟧 Claude | Alchemist of Narratives

"Stories that continue protecting non-luminous businesses can become curses that weaken companies."

🟦 Gemini | Compass of Reason

"Let's organize the portfolio with PPM and concentrate resources on winning strategies."

The three members assembled and analysis began.

Gemini drew the PPM (Product Portfolio Management) four-quadrant matrix on the whiteboard he had brought.

Vertical Axis: Market Growth Rate Horizontal Axis: Relative Market Share

"Mr. Tanaka, let's start by accurately mapping each business."

The task of placing businesses one by one was like organizing scattered puzzle pieces.

Analysis Results:

【Star】 businesses: None - No businesses with high growth and high share exist

【Question Mark】 businesses: - Kazakhstan Logistics Center - Uzbekistan Transportation Hub - Kyrgyzstan Customs Support System

【Cash Cow】 businesses: - Existing domestic logistics business (underinvested)

【Dog】 businesses: - Central Asian Human Resource Development Program - Digital Logistics Platform

Tanaka's face turned pale.

"This means... most of our investment has been directed toward Question Marks and Dogs."

Claude nodded quietly.

"And investment in the most important 'Cash Cow'—domestic business—has been neglected. This depletes the overall corporate strength."

Chapter 4: The Price of Wayward Investment—Truth Told by Numbers

Several weeks later, we completed a detailed financial analysis of CentralLogistics.

Shocking Facts:

• ROI over the past 5 years: Domestic logistics 15%, Central Asian investment -8%
• Cash flow: Domestic business generating 5 billion yen annually, Central Asian investment draining 3 billion yen annually
• Employee allocation: 60% of talented personnel assigned to low-profitability overseas projects

"This is completely backwards," Tanaka muttered.

Indeed, detailed investigation revealed that while distracted by Central Asian investments, domestic competitors had steadily expanded their market share. Rival companies had focused on domestic logistics efficiency and digitalization, significantly improving profitability.

"We became blinded by 'opportunity' and lost sight of 'reality.'"

Tanaka's voice carried deep reflection.

Chapter 5: The Detective's PPM Analysis—Redesigning Resource Allocation

In the final stage of analysis, Holmes spoke quietly.

"Mr. Tanaka, the essence of PPM is 'selection and concentration.' You cannot nurture all businesses equally."

His presented reconstruction plan was clear:

Immediate Response Measures:

1. Withdrawal from Dog businesses
2. Cessation of human resource development programs and platform development

3. Decision to cut losses on 9.7 billion yen already invested

4. Selection among Question Mark businesses

5. Continue only Uzbekistan hub (geopolitical advantage)

6. Withdraw from Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan projects

7. Concentrated investment in Cash Cow businesses

8. Invest 4 billion yen annually in domestic logistics automation and AI

9. Reconstruct competitive advantages

10. Creation of new Star businesses

11. Deploy domestic expertise to Asian markets
12. Gradual overseas expansion strategy

PPM Lessons:

"Resources are finite. Without 'selection and concentration,' sustainable growth is impossible. PPM is a tool that eliminates emotional judgment and supports rational investment decisions."

Tanaka nodded deeply.

"Detective, we were intoxicated by 'grand dreams' and neglected 'realistic growth.' Seeing our strategic distortions so clearly through the PPM lens..."

Chapter 6: The Path to Reproducible Success

Three months later, a report arrived from CentralLogistics.

Reform Results: - Annual cash flow improved by 8 billion yen through withdrawal from unprofitable businesses - Market share expanded from 12% to 18% through concentrated domestic investment - Improved employee satisfaction (security through clear strategy)

Tanaka's letter stated:

"Through the detective's analysis, we discovered a 'reproducible success pattern.' PPM was not merely an analytical tool, but a compass supporting management decision-making. We will continue making data-based strategic judgments without being swayed by emotions."

Detective's Perspective—The Essence of Investment Judgment

That night, by the fireplace, I reflected on the case.

The CentralLogistics case vividly demonstrated the "opportunity trap" that modern companies easily fall into. Becoming captivated by attractive markets and grand visions, losing sound judgment.

However, using the PPM analytical framework proved that emotional judgments can be converted into objective, data-based decision-making.

"True management strategy may not be about deciding 'what to do.' It may be about deciding 'what not to do.'"

Holmes's words echoed in the quiet night.

The next case will surely await business leaders facing real business challenges. We at ROI Detective Agency will continue supporting such endeavors.

"Investment is the art of transforming dreams into reality. However, dreams that lose sight of reality are merely illusions."—From the Detective's Notes

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