ROI Case File No.212 | 'The Lost Reform of Western European Education Services'

Chapter 1: The Banner of Educational Reform—A Confused Innovation Project

The week following the resolution of FastPay Solutions' OODA acceleration case, a serious request arrived from Western Europe in the education sector.

"Detective, our educational reform project has completely lost its way. Despite investing ¥5 billion over three years, we haven't achieved anything."

EduTech Innovation's Chief Strategy Officer, Sofia Müller, visited 221B Baker Street with an exhausted expression. In her hands were thick educational reform project materials and confused progress reports.

"We are a company providing educational services across Europe, developing a 'next-generation digital education platform.' It's an innovative system integrating all the latest technologies—AI utilization, personalized learning optimization, VR experiences..."

EduTech Innovation's Reform Project Overview: - Project duration: 3 years (currently 2 years 8 months elapsed) - Total investment: ¥5 billion (significantly exceeded initial budget of ¥3 billion) - Development team: 120 people (double the original plan) - Target users: 5 million learners

The numbers alone suggested a large-scale advanced project. However, Sofia's expression was dark.

"The problem is that the project is in a state of confusion. Goals are ambiguous, development directions change frequently, and no one on the team understands what we're actually building."

Serious Project Situation: - Specification changes: 47 times in the past year (more than once per week) - Completed development features: 23% of original plan - Team departure rate: 36% (three times industry average) - User testing: Not conducted ("after completion" policy)

"What confuses us most is that while we aim for 'innovative education,' it's unclear what makes it innovative or why innovation is necessary."

Chapter 2: Confused Processes—The Boundary Between Exploration and Convergence

"Ms. Sofia, could you tell us about the project's progress process in detail?"

Holmes inquired quietly.

Sofia answered while spreading out confused materials.

"Actually, that's the core of the problem. We've adopted 'agile development,' but in reality, we continue developing without a clear direction."

Typical Project Progression Confusion:

Monday: New Idea Proposal Development team: "Shall we add an AI voice recognition learning support feature?" Product manager: "That sounds interesting. Let's consider it."

Tuesday: Another Proposal UX designer: "Wouldn't a VR classroom feature be more innovative? It's getting attention in the market." Technical director: "It's technically feasible. Let's proceed with this too."

Wednesday: More Ideas Sales team: "We're getting many requests for 'gamification' from customers." CEO: "Can't we incorporate everything? It's an innovative platform."

Thursday: Peak Confusion Development team: "We don't know which features to prioritize." Project manager: "Let's try building everything and select later."

Friday: No Progress Everyone: "We don't have concrete deliverables this week, but we considered various things."

I noticed the fundamental problem.

"The entire project seems unable to escape the 'exploration phase.'"

Sofia nodded deeply.

"Exactly. We keep considering new ideas continuously without actually building anything."

Current Project Status: - Ideas under consideration: 127 items - Prototypes: 23 (all incomplete) - Implemented features: Basic functions only (little difference from conventional systems) - User feedback: 0 cases (testing not even conducted)

"We're intoxicated with the word 'innovative' but have lost sight of the process to actually create innovation."

Chapter 3: Order Revealed by the Double Diamond—Escape from Confusion

⬜️ ChatGPT | Catalyst of Ideas

"Distinguishing exploration from convergence. The Double Diamond is a blueprint for transforming confusion into order."

🟧 Claude | Alchemist of Narratives

"Stories resonate because they have clear 'beginnings and endings.' Reform is the same."

🟦 Gemini | Compass of Reason

"Let's organize processes with the Double Diamond and make educational reform sustainable."

The three members began their analysis. Gemini developed the "Double Diamond Model" structure on the whiteboard.

Double Diamond Model's 4 Stages:

First Diamond (Problem Discovery and Definition): - Discover (Discovery): Problem exploration and divergent thinking - Define (Definition): Problem clarification and convergent thinking

Second Diamond (Solution Development and Implementation): - Develop (Development): Solution exploration and divergent thinking - Deliver (Implementation): Solution execution and convergent thinking

"Ms. Sofia, let's analyze EduTech's project using the Double Diamond."

EduTech Project Current Status Analysis:

First Diamond: Problem Domain

Discover (Discovery) Stage Problems: - Implementation: Market research, technology trend research, competitive analysis - Duration: 6 months from project start - Results: Vague recognition that "digital education market is growing" - Problems: No specific problem identification

Define (Definition) Stage Absence: - Implementation: Insufficient (only vague goal setting) - Duration: Nearly skipped - Results: Abstract goal of "creating an innovative platform" - Fatal Problem: No concrete problem to solve defined

Second Diamond: Solution Domain

Develop (Development) Stage Confusion: - Implementation: Chaotic idea generation, technology verification, feature development - Duration: Over 2 years ongoing - Results: 127 ideas, 23 incomplete prototypes - Problem: No convergence process, perpetual divergent state

Deliver (Implementation) Stage Stagnation: - Implementation: Only partial feature development - Duration: Only 3 months - Results: Basic functions only (little difference from conventional) - Problem: No solution to implement determined

Claude made a sharp observation.

"This is a typical 'Double Diamond dysfunction.' Particularly, the complete absence of the 'Define' stage causes all subsequent processes to wander."

Comparison with Successful Educational Competitors:

Competitor A (Successful Innovative Individual Learning System Development):

First Diamond: 6 months - Discover (2 months): Investigation of specific learner problems - Define (1 month): Problem identified as "overcoming math anxiety" - Clear issue: "Why 70% of middle school students struggle with algebra and solutions"

Second Diamond: 12 months - Develop (6 months): Solution exploration for algebra learning support - Deliver (6 months): Implementation of specialized AI tutoring system - Results: 85% math grade improvement rate, 92% usage continuation rate

Critical Difference from EduTech: - Problem clarity: Specific vs. Abstract - Process discipline: Systematic vs. Chaotic - Outcome measurability: Quantitative vs. Ambiguous

Sofia was stunned.

"We were thinking about 'how to solve' without clarifying 'what to solve.'"

Chapter 4: Reclaiming the Path of Reform—Orderly Innovation Process

Detailed project analysis revealed the depth of EduTech's problems more clearly.

Double Diamond Analysis Revealing Problem Structure:

Root Cause: Complete Absence of Define Stage

Current Situation: - Problem to solve: Unclear - Target users: "General learners" (vague) - Success indicators: "Being innovative" (unmeasurable) - Competitive advantage: "Utilizing latest technology" (means becoming the end)

This causes the entire project to: - Endless exploration: Unable to escape from Discover - Directional instability: Frequent policy changes due to absent Define - Invalid development: Wasteful trial and error in Develop stage - Valueless implementation: Form-only deliverables in Deliver stage

Industry Expert Analysis: "Companies successful in educational technology define extremely specifically 'what learning problems to solve.' Technology-first approaches inevitably fail."

Typical Failure Pattern Examples:

Failed Company B: - Approach: "Innovative education using VR" - Problem definition: Vague ("VR-izing education") - Result: ¥8 billion development cost, 3% user acquisition rate, business withdrawal in 2 years

Failed Company C: - Approach: "AI-powered personalized learning" - Problem definition: Abstract ("learning efficiency") - Result: High functionality but difficult to use, 12% continuation rate, defeated by competitors

EduTech's Current Trajectory: Following the same pattern as both failure cases

Urgently Needed Direction Change: Paradigm shift from technology-driven to problem-driven

Chapter 5: Detective's Double Diamond Analysis—Orderly Innovation

Holmes compiled the comprehensive analysis.

"Ms. Sofia, the essence of the Double Diamond is 'the discipline of divergence and convergence.' True innovation is born from following the correct process in the correct order."

Double Diamond Reconstruction Plan:

Emergency Reset Period (2 months):

Step 1: Temporary Project Suspension - Complete suspension of current development work - Sharing current status recognition across the entire team - Education on the Double Diamond Model

Step 2: Execution of True Discover Stage (6 weeks) - Investigation of specific learner issues: 1,000 person interviews - Observation of educational site problems: 50 school on-site investigations - Quantitative data collection: Analysis of learning effectiveness inhibiting factors - Detailed analysis of competitor success/failure cases

Step 3: Rigorous Define Stage Execution (2 weeks) - Specific identification of problems to solve - Clear target user definition - Quantitative success indicator setting - Articulation of competitive advantage

After First Diamond Completion:

Step 4: Structured Develop Stage (4 months) - Solution exploration for defined problems - Prototype development and user testing - Technology verification and feasibility evaluation - Optimal solution convergence process

Step 5: Focused Deliver Stage (6 months) - Full implementation of determined solutions - Gradual user deployment - Continuous improvement cycle - Result measurement and evaluation

New Project Operating Principles:

1. Staged Gate Management - Clear completion criteria for each stage - Approval process for advancing to next stage - Rules preventing backward movement

2. Ensuring Concreteness - Prohibition of abstract expressions - Measurable goal setting - Concrete user stories

3. Convergence Discipline - Strict limitation of divergence periods - Pre-set convergence criteria - Clear decision-making authority

"Innovation is not born from chaos. True value creation is realized only within structured processes."

Chapter 6: Educational Reform Revival—Innovation Born from Order

Eight months later, a report arrived from EduTech Innovation.

Results from Double Diamond Reconstruction:

First Diamond (Problem Discovery and Definition) Results:

Concrete Issues Discovered in Discover Stage: - "68% of middle school students have anxiety about English listening" - "45% of high school students struggle with math application problems" - "52% of elementary students have anxiety about essay writing"

Priority Issue Selected in Define Stage: - Target Problem: "Overcoming middle school students' English listening anxiety" - Target Users: Middle school students grades 1-3 (particularly those with deviation scores 45-60) - Success Indicators: 20% listening grade improvement, 80%+ learning continuation rate - Competitive Advantage: Individual pronunciation correction using AI voice recognition

Second Diamond (Solution Development and Implementation) Results:

Solutions Created in Develop Stage: - Core Function: Real-time pronunciation correction AI - Support Function: Gradual listening difficulty adjustment - Motivation: Growth visualization and gamification

Implementation Results in Deliver Stage: - Development period: 6 months (as planned) - Beta users: 5,000 people - Grade improvement rate: Average 23% (exceeding 20% target) - Continued usage rate: 87% (significantly exceeding 80% target)

Project Management Improvements: - Specification changes: 47 times → 3 times (94% reduction) - Team departure rate: 36% → 8% (recovery to normal levels) - Development efficiency: 280% improvement over conventional - User satisfaction: 4.6/5 (high level achieved)

Business Results: - Product release: Completed as scheduled - First-year sales: ¥2.4 billion achieved against ¥1.8 billion target - Market evaluation: Received Educational Technology Award - Competitive advantage: 30% higher learning effectiveness than similar products

Sofia's letter contained deep gratitude:

"Through the Double Diamond, we escaped from 'confusion disguised as innovation.' Most importantly, we learned to first clarify 'what to solve' before thinking about 'how to solve it.' We learned that process discipline creates true innovation. Now the entire team can work efficiently toward the same goal under clear direction."

Detective's Perspective—The Value of Orderly Innovation

That night, reflecting on the case, I pondered.

EduTech Innovation's case clearly demonstrated the "innovation trap" that modern companies often fall into. In pursuing innovation, they neglect structured processes, resulting in an inability to produce anything.

The true value of the Double Diamond Model lies in balancing creativity with discipline. By appropriately using divergent and convergent thinking at the right timing, chaotic exploration can be converted into valuable results.

Particularly important was the "Define" stage. By clearly defining the problem to solve, direction and meaning are given to all subsequent processes. Companies that neglect this stage cannot achieve results no matter how excellent their personnel or abundant their funding.

"True innovation is not born from chaos. It blooms only within orderly processes."

As the second case in Volume XVI "Quest for Agility," EduTech's case provided important lessons. Agility is not just speed, but also the ability to execute the right processes in the right order.

"Innovation is not about doing new things. It's about realizing the right things in the right way. And that right way is the Double Diamond process."—From the Detective's Notes