ROI Case File No.273｜'Arclight Energy's Double Convergence'

Chapter 1: The Labyrinth of Ideas—Chaos That Diverges Without Converging

The week after resolving the BlueHarbor Retail design thinking case, a consultation arrived from Northern Europe regarding an energy company's new business development. Case File 273 of Volume 22 "The Pursuit of Reproducibility" is a story about organizing countless ideas and converging them into a single executable path.

"Detective, we're trying to launch a new renewable energy business. We have over 100 ideas. However, we can't decide which to choose, and for 18 months, we've executed nothing."

Lars Olsen, New Business Director of Arclight Energy from Oslo, visited 221B Baker Street with an exhausted expression. In his hands were photos of whiteboards covered in sticky notes contrasted sharply with blank business plans.

"We're a major company operating solar and wind power in Norway. We aim to enter next-generation energy business, but too many options prevent progress."

Arclight Energy's Stagnation: - Founded: 2010 (renewable energy major) - Existing business revenue: 45 billion yen - New business development period: 18 months - Time invested: Cumulative 2,400 hours (meetings, research) - Projects executed: 0 - Idea count: 127 (unorganized)

Lars's expression held deep anxiety.

"The problem is we only 'diverge' continuously. We repeat brainstorming, pile up market research, and ideas keep growing. But we can't narrow them down or translate them into concrete plans."

The Divergence Chain: - Monthly meetings: 10 new ideas added - Research reports: "This market is attractive too," expanding options - Decision-making: "Let's consider more" postponement - Result: 127 ideas, 0 executions

"We can 'think,' but we can't 'decide.'"

Chapter 2: Two Diamonds—Repeating Divergence and Convergence Twice

"Lars, how is your current new business development process conducted?"

To my question, Lars answered with a bitter expression.

"Basically brainstorming. In monthly strategy meetings, everyone contributes ideas. 'Hydrogen energy,' 'batteries,' 'smart grids,' 'EV charging'—we record everything we think of."

Current Process (Divergence Only): - Phase 1: Ideation → Inflated to 127 items - Phase 2: Market research → Found possibilities in all areas - Phase 3: Narrowing → Can't decide because "everything is important" - Phase 4: Execution → Never reached

I explained the importance of balancing divergence and convergence.

"Expanding ideas is important. But that alone leads you into a labyrinth. Double Diamond—by repeating divergence and convergence twice, you move from chaos to clear solutions."

⬜️ ChatGPT｜Catalyst of Concepts

"Expand and narrow, then expand and narrow again. Two diamonds transform chaos into crystal"

🟧 Claude｜Alchemist of Narratives

"Divergence is exploration, convergence is decision. Repeat this breathing twice to become executable"

🟦 Gemini｜Compass of Reason

"Double Diamond is a map of thinking. Find the right problem, create the right solution"

The three members began analysis. Gemini deployed the "Energy Business-Specialized Double Diamond" framework on the whiteboard.

Double Diamond's 4 Stages:

First Diamond (Find the Right Problem): 1. Discover - Explore broadly, diverge possibilities 2. Define - Converge on the essential problem

Second Diamond (Create the Right Solution): 3. Develop - Diverge solutions, test them 4. Deliver - Converge on the best solution, execute

"Lars, let's organize Arclight's new business with two diamonds."

Chapter 3: The First Diamond—Journey to Find the Right Problem

Phase 1: Discover—Welcoming Chaos (2 weeks)

First, we visualized all 127 existing ideas.

Idea Classification: - Energy generation: Hydrogen, geothermal, wave, biomass (42 items) - Energy storage: Batteries, pumped hydro, compressed air (28 items) - Energy distribution: Smart grid, P2P trading (23 items) - Energy utilization: EV charging, factory electrification, heat pumps (34 items)

Additionally, we added customer interviews and market research.

Interview Subjects: - Industrial customers: 15 manufacturing companies - Municipalities: 5 Nordic cities - General consumers: 200 people

Discovered Issues: - Industrial customers: "Renewable energy is unstable. Stable supply is top priority" - Municipalities: "Have decarbonization goals but cost is the challenge" - Consumers: "Interested in environment but prefer cheaper electricity"

Phase 2: Define—Seeing the Essence (1 month)

From 127 ideas and customer voices, we extracted the essential problem.

Question Setup: "What is the most important problem we should solve?"

Evaluation Axis Setup: 1. Severity of customer pain 2. Market size 3. Utilization of Arclight's strengths 4. Feasibility

Results of Evaluating 127 Ideas:

Top 3 Problem Areas: 1. Industrial stable power supply (Pain severity: High, Market size: Large, Strength utilization: High) 2. Municipal decarbonization support (Pain severity: Medium, Market size: Medium, Strength utilization: Medium) 3. Residential electricity cost reduction (Pain severity: Medium, Market size: Large, Strength utilization: Low)

Defined Problem: "Due to renewable energy instability, industrial customers cannot plan production and suffer opportunity losses and additional costs"

Specific Pain Points: - Steel mill: Production stoppage due to power shortage, 20 million yen loss per hour - Chemical plant: Quality defects from power fluctuations, 800 million yen annual waste - Data center: Compensation to customers from momentary outages, 1.2 billion yen annual risk

Lars was surprised.

"All 127 ideas were from the perspective of 'supplying energy.' But the essential problem was 'stability.'"

Chapter 4: The Second Diamond—Experiments to Create the Right Solution

Phase 3: Develop—Diverging Solutions (2 months)

For the defined problem, we diverged solution ideas.

Solution Directions:

Direction A: Battery System Combinations - Idea 1: Install large lithium-ion batteries - Idea 2: Combine hydrogen storage and fuel cells - Idea 3: Instant compensation via flywheels

Direction B: Supply-Demand Optimization - Idea 4: AI demand forecasting and generation adjustment - Idea 5: Power sharing network among multiple factories - Idea 6: Production shift suggestions by time period

Direction C: Hybrid Power - Idea 7: Renewable + small gas turbine combination - Idea 8: Renewable + existing grid backup contract - Idea 9: Renewable + on-site generation integrated control

Prototyping and Verification:

We tested each idea on a small scale.

Test 1: Battery System at Steel Mill A (3 months) - Installed 10MWh lithium-ion battery - Absorbed solar fluctuations - Result: Zero production stoppages, 200 million yen annual loss eliminated - Challenge: Initial investment 1.5 billion yen, 7.5-year payback

Test 2: AI Supply-Demand Adjustment at Chemical Plant B (2 months) - Integrated weather forecasts with production plans - Concentrated production during abundant power periods - Result: 18% power cost reduction, 30% quality defect decrease - Challenge: Requires production plan flexibility (difficult for some factories)

Test 3: Hybrid Power at Data Center C (3 months) - 70% renewable + 30% small gas turbine - Gas turbine operates only during fluctuations - Result: 100% stability, 70% CO2 emission reduction - Advantage: Initial investment 60% of battery-only

Phase 4: Define (Convergence)—Choosing the Best Solution (2 weeks)

We evaluated test results and converged on the best solution.

Evaluation Results:

Best: Hybrid Power Model - Stability: 100% (fully meets customer requirements) - Cost: 60% of battery-only - CO2 reduction: 70% (achieves environmental goals) - Feasibility: High (combination of existing technologies)

Business Model Design: - Product name: "Arclight Stable Power" - Target: Industrial customers requiring power stability - Price: Conventional power +15% (stability premium) - Value proposition: "Environmental value of renewable" + "100% stability"

Phase 5: Deliver (Execution)—Market Launch (6 months)

We fully deployed the converged solution.

Launch Strategy: - Initial customers: 3 test participants + 5 additional - Implementation period: 3 months per company - Accumulate and expand success stories

Results after 12 months:

Business Metrics: - Contract companies: 15 - New business revenue: 4.5 billion yen - Operating margin: 22% - Customer satisfaction: 4.8/5

Customer Voices:

Steel Mill A (CTO): "For 18 months, zero production stoppages due to power. We never imagined achieving stability exceeding thermal power while using renewable energy. It contributes to our decarbonization goals too."

Chemical Plant B (Production Director): "Quality defects decreased dramatically. Temperature control disruptions from power fluctuations are gone. It improved not just environment, but profitability."

Chapter 5: The Detective's Double Diamond Diagnosis—Getting Lost Right, Converging Right

Holmes compiled the comprehensive analysis.

"Lars, the essence of Double Diamond is 'alternating divergence and convergence.' Divergence alone is chaos, convergence alone is tunnel vision. By exploring possibilities through two divergences and reaching an executable single path through two convergences—this is the reproducible technology of innovation."

Final Report after 24 months:

Arclight Energy became a leading company in the Nordic industrial energy market.

Final Achievements: - New business revenue: 4.5 billion yen → 18 billion yen (4x) - Contract companies: 15 → 65 - CO2 reduction contribution: 420,000 tons annually - Industry award: "Most Innovative Energy Solution"

Lars's letter contained deep learning:

"Through Double Diamond, we transformed from 'an organization that keeps wandering' to 'an organization that can decide.' Most important was intentionally repeating divergence and convergence. Find the right problem in the first diamond, create the right solution in the second. Now all new projects pass through these two diamonds. We learned chaos isn't an enemy—it's a necessary process."

The Detective's Perspective—Structured Exploration

That night, I contemplated the process of innovation.

The true value of Double Diamond lies in balancing chaos and order. Many organizations fear divergence and converge too quickly, or keep diverging without converging. But true innovation comes from balancing the two.

Explore broadly, narrow sharply. Explore broadly again, narrow sharply again. This breathing leads to the right problem and right solution.

"Don't fear getting lost. But also don't fear staying lost. The two diamonds are a map of the labyrinth."

The next case will also depict a moment when structured thinking opens a company's future.

"Divergence is setting sail on the sea of possibilities. Convergence is landing on one island. Through two voyages, find the right island"—From the detective's notes

Related files