ROI Case File No.230 | 'The Reverse Calculation of Asian Food Manufacturer'

Chapter 1: The Shadow of Expansion Strategy — The Beginning of Crisis Called Stagnation

The week following the resolution of MediterraneoStyle's 4P integration case, an unexpected consultation arrived from Asia. The final case of Volume XVII "The Challenge of Reproducibility," Case 230, was about a company that had lost its path to success through introspection.

"Detective, we are an Asian food manufacturer with rapid growth goals, but somehow a sense of stagnation permeates our entire organization, and we've fallen into a situation where we cannot take on new challenges. Our success experiences seem to have become shackles."

AsiaFood Dynamics CEO Kentaro Tanaka visited 221B Baker Street with a complex expression. In his hands were steady performance data alongside contrasting internal survey results showing declining organizational vitality.

"We are a mid-sized company operating food business across Asia. We've continued steady growth over the past 10 years, but recently the organization has lost its appetite for new challenges."

AsiaFood Dynamics' Stable Record: - Established: 1995 (30 years of track record) - Annual revenue: ¥45 billion (continued stable growth) - Market share: Asia food market 8th place (stable mid-tier position) - Employee count: 1,800 (stable organization with 3% turnover rate) - Main products: Established position in frozen foods and seasonings

The numbers certainly showed a stable company. However, Tanaka's expression was marked with deep concern.

"The problem is that we've become complacent with 'maintaining status quo' and can no longer challenge new markets or develop innovative products. In avoiding 'failure risks,' we're also avoiding 'growth opportunities.'"

Signs of Growth Stagnation: - New product development count: 12 items annually (half of 5 years ago) - New market entry: 0 cases in past 3 years - Innovative projects: 90% cancelled at planning stage - Employee challenge motivation: 65% rated "low" in internal survey

"Most seriously, the entire organization focuses on 'protecting current success' with no consciousness toward 'creating future success.'"

Chapter 2: Stagnating Workplace — Organization Dominated by Fear

"Mr. Tanaka, please tell me about the specific situations where your organization avoids new challenges."

Holmes inquired quietly.

Tanaka began explaining the internal situation with a confused expression.

"In our organization, even when new ideas or proposals emerge, 'risks' and 'problems' are always emphasized, resulting in nothing being executed."

Typical New Proposal Rejection Patterns:

Proposal Case 1: Entry into Emerging Country Markets - Proposer: Marketing Department Manager - Proposal content: Food exports to 3 Southeast Asian emerging countries - Rejection reasons: "Unknown market," "High risk," "Should focus on current business" - Result: Decision to postpone after 3 months of consideration

Proposal Case 2: Plant-Based Food Development - Proposer: Product Development Department Supervisor - Proposal content: Frozen food series using plant-based meat alternatives - Rejection reasons: "Divergence from traditional customers," "Unclear investment recovery," "High technical hurdles" - Result: Cancelled at market research stage

Proposal Case 3: DX Promotion for Production Efficiency - Proposer: Production Technology Department Manager - Proposal content: AI-utilizing quality management and production optimization system - Rejection reasons: "Large investment amount," "Uncertain effects," "Current system sufficient" - Result: Not even pilot experiments conducted

I focused on the organization's thought patterns.

"Every proposal is evaluated only from a 'Keep (maintain status quo)' perspective, with no consideration of 'Try (new challenges)' value."

Tanaka sighed deeply.

"Exactly. Our desire to 'not fail' is too strong, making us unable to consider 'possibilities for success.'"

Organizational Thought Pattern Problems:

Typical Meeting Statements: - "Risk is too great" (always the first response) - "Now is not the right time" (postponement through timing arguments) - "No budget available" (reluctance toward investment) - "Not enough personnel" (rigidity in resource allocation) - "If it fails, there will be responsibility issues" (risk-avoidance thinking)

Organizational Reactions to New Ideas: 1. First enumerate problems and risks 2. Bring up past failure cases 3. Search for justification reasons for status quo maintenance 4. Rationalize reasons for non-execution 5. Conclusion: "Let's skip this time"

"We think only about 'protecting the present' and have forgotten about 'creating the future.'"

Chapter 3: KPT Illuminates Action Bias — The Imbalanced Improvement Cycle

⬜️ ChatGPT | Catalyst of Concepts

"Not fearing new attempts more than continuing is what opens the future"

🟧 Claude | Alchemist of Narratives

"Story progression emerges from 'attempts.' Stagnation closes stories"

🟦 Gemini | Compass of Logic

"Organizations that suppress Try close their own future"

The three members began analysis. Gemini deployed the "KPT Analysis" framework on the whiteboard.

KPT Framework Structure: - K (Keep): Good initiatives to continue - P (Problem): Problem points to improve - T (Try): New things to challenge

"Mr. Tanaka, let's objectively analyze AsiaFood Dynamics' organizational situation using KPT."

AsiaFood Dynamics KPT Analysis:

Keep (Good initiatives to continue): - High-quality product development capability: Technical skills cultivated over 30 years - Stable customer base: Trust relationships with 85% repeat rate - Efficient production system: Waste-free manufacturing operations - Sound financial management: Stable revenue structure - Excellent personnel: Technology and know-how accumulation with low turnover

Problem (Problem points to improve): - Decreased new product development: Lack of innovation - Market expansion stagnation: Dependence on existing markets - Organizational rigidity: Resistance to new ideas - Slow decision-making: Overly cautious consideration processes - Fear of challenges: Culture of excessive fear of failure

Try (New things to challenge): Here a major problem was discovered.

Claude reported shocking analysis results.

"This is serious. In AsiaFood Dynamics' organization, 'Try' items are hardly being executed. The KPT balance is completely broken."

Detailed KPT Execution Status Analysis:

Keep (Execution status: 95%): - 95% of organizational activities are Keep items - All resources concentrated on maintaining and improving existing operations - Excessive optimization toward status quo maintenance - Corporate culture emphasizing stability

Problem (Execution status: 70%): - High problem awareness but insufficient solution actions - Limited to superficial improvements - Insufficient efforts toward fundamental transformation - Prioritizing status quo maintenance over improvement

Try (Execution status: 5%): - Almost no new challenges - 90% cancelled at planning stage - Risk avoidance as top priority - Extremely few experimental and trial opportunities

Healthy KPT Balance vs AsiaFood's Current State:

Healthy Organization KPT Allocation: - Keep: 60% (ensuring stability) - Problem: 25% (continuous improvement) - Try: 15% (growth investment)

AsiaFood's Current State: - Keep: 95% (excessive status quo maintenance) - Problem: 5% (superficial improvement only) - Try: 0% (complete challenge cessation)

Most Serious Discovery: "Try Phobia"

The entire organization pathologically feared new challenges, completely blocking "Try," the source of growth. This creates the following vicious cycle:

1. Don't Try → No learning opportunities
2. No learning → No capability improvement
3. No capability improvement → No confidence for challenges
4. No confidence → Further reluctance to Try

Comparison with Competitors:

Growth Company A (20% annual growth rate): - Keep: 55% (ensuring stability) - Problem: 25% (active improvement) - Try: 20% (active challenges) - Result: Sustained growth and innovation

AsiaFood (2% annual growth rate): - Keep: 95% (excessive stability orientation) - Problem: 5% (passive improvement) - Try: 0% (challenge avoidance) - Result: Stagnation and declining competitiveness

Chapter 4: The Culture of Fear — The Invisible Cage That Blocks Challenges

Detailed KPT analysis and organizational research revealed AsiaFood Dynamics' fundamental organizational problems.

Structural Factors of "Try Phobia":

Root Problem: Excessive Fear of Failure

AsiaFood developed a deep-rooted fixed mindset that "failure = bad" throughout the organization due to past stable success experiences.

Specific Manifestations of Failure-Fear Culture:

Evaluation System Problems: - Deduction system: Harsh penalties for failures - Success-only evaluation: Challenge processes not evaluated - Preferential treatment for conservative behavior: Risk-averse managers get promoted - Innovator exclusion: Personnel who generate new ideas are avoided

Decision-Making Process Problems: - Perfectionism: Demanding 100% success probability - Excessive preliminary consideration: Missing opportunities by spending too much time on analysis - Emphasis on unanimous agreement: Cancellation if even one person opposes - Responsibility avoidance: Postponement due to absence of decision makers

Organizational Communication Problems: - Preferential treatment for negative comments: Problem identifiers evaluated as "realistic" - Dismissal of positive comments: Possibility speakers criticized as "too optimistic" - Precedent-ism: Rejection based on "no precedent" - Conformity pressure: Atmosphere where expressing different opinions is difficult

Real Voices from Employee Interviews:

Mid-level Manager (45 years old): "When I propose new ideas, I'm always bombarded with questions like 'What are the risks?' and 'Any precedents?' I'm tired of explaining and recently decided not to propose anything anymore."

Young Employee (28 years old): "A senior told me 'Can you take responsibility if it fails?' If I can't take responsibility, I can't propose anything. Everyone staying quiet is safest."

Product Development Staff (38 years old): "Ten years ago we developed 20 new products annually, but now about 5. We can only make 'things that will definitely sell.' But there's no such thing as new products that will definitely sell."

Specific Losses from Try Phobia:

Opportunity Loss Calculation: - New market entry opportunities: 15 missed in past 3 years - New product development: 8 fewer items annually (¥3B opportunity loss) - Efficiency investment: ¥500M annual cost increase due to DX delays - Personnel outflow: 10 challenging employees transferred to competitors

Actual Competitiveness Decline: - Market share: 8th place → 12th place (4-rank decline) - Growth rate: Industry average 8% vs AsiaFood 2% - New product ratio: 15% of revenue (industry average 30%) - Innovation index: Bottom tier within industry

Most Serious Discovery: "Success Experience Trap"

AsiaFood's past success came from "stable strategy avoiding risks," but environmental changes made the same strategy a shackle. A typical example where success experiences hinder adaptation to change.

Chapter 5: Detective's KPT Diagnosis — Liberation from Reverse Calculation

Holmes summarized the comprehensive analysis.

"Mr. Tanaka, KPT's essence is 'balance.' Only when Keep (continuation), Problem (improvement), and Try (challenge) are executed in good balance can healthy organizational growth be realized. Currently AsiaFood completely lacks 'Try,' which is the fundamental cause of growth stagnation."

**KPT Rebalancing Strategy: Cases 221 to 230, we pursued the theme "The Challenge of Reproducibility" through 10 different companies, 10 different challenges, and 10 practical frameworks.

The Essence of "Reproducibility" Explored in Volume XVII:

• AARRR Analysis: From one-time amazement to lifelong relationships
• TOC Constraint Theory: Continuous improvement by finding constraints continuously
• OKR: Organizational power concentration through measurable goals
• VRIO Analysis: Building difficult-to-imitate competitive advantages
• Jobs Theory: Value provision based on customers' true needs
• Blue Ocean Strategy: Value creation in competition-free markets
• EMPATHY Map: Effective support based on beneficiary understanding
• LEAN Methodology: Focus on true value creation
• 4P Analysis: Building consistent brand stories
• KPT Analysis: Maintaining balance of challenge and improvement

As AsiaFood Dynamics demonstrated in the final case, true reproducibility lies not in "maintaining the status quo" but in "continuously adapting to change."

Truth Proven by Volume XVII:

Reproducible success doesn't mean repeating the same methods once. It means embedding the capability to continuously adapt, evolve, and challenge in response to environmental changes into the organization.

Keep what should be kept, improve Problems, and continue challenging new Tries. This cycle is the true "Challenge of Reproducibility."

Through Volume XVII, 10 companies each achieved "reproducibility" in their own ways. Their common point was not acquiring fixed success patterns, but gaining "adaptive growth capability."

The ROI Detective Agency's mission continues. What challenges await in the next Volume XVIII? However, we have confidence.

No matter what changes or difficulties we face, with correct frameworks and continuous learning, we can always adapt and continue growing.

That is the power of true "reproducibility."

Detective's Perspective — The True Reason for Hiring

That night, reflecting on the essence of challenge and growth, I pondered.

AsiaFood Dynamics' case clearly demonstrated that many companies fall into the trap of "excessive attachment to success experiences" and "beautification of stagnation." The most dangerous state for any organization is when "not challenging" becomes the norm.

KPT's true value lies in its ability to balance three essential elements of organizational growth: continuity, improvement, and challenge. When this balance collapses, even excellent companies lose their vitality.

In the context of Volume XVII "The Challenge of Reproducibility," AsiaFood's transformation provided the perfect conclusion. The essence of reproducibility is not repeating past successes, but building the organizational capability to continue creating new value.

"True growth comes from the courage to continue challenging"

This final case demonstrated that reproducibility is not about preserving what exists, but about cultivating the courage and capability to continuously venture into the unknown. The next volume will undoubtedly explore new frontiers of this eternal challenge.

Volume XVII "The Challenge of Reproducibility" Complete

"Reproducibility is not repeating the same things. It is reproducing the ability to continue creating value in a changing world. That ability becomes the true foundation supporting a company's perpetual success." — From the Detective's Final Notes "Liberation from Fear" to "Challenging Organization"**

Basic Strategy Policy: Try Revival Program

Phase 1: Try Phobia Treatment (3 months)

Failure-Fear Culture Transformation:

1. Evaluation System Reform - Challenge evaluation system: Evaluate challenge processes over results - Failure tolerance system: Up to 3 "good failures" annually evaluated positively - Try promotion awards: Award employees who take new challenges - Learning emphasis: Learning from failures recognized as important achievement

2. Decision-Making Process Reform - 80% rule: Execute decisions with 80% certainty - Time box: Set upper limits for consideration periods (1 month) - Small-scale experiments: Mandatory testing before large investments - Responsibility distribution: Individual responsibility reduction through team responsibility

Phase 2: Try Culture Cultivation (6 months)

Challenge Promotion System Construction:

1. Try Framework Institutionalization - 15% of work time: Dedicated time for new challenges - Try budget: ¥500M annual experimental investment framework - Try teams: Challenge specialist teams in each department - Try reporting meetings: Monthly challenge result sharing

2. Learning Organization Construction - Failure case database: Failure accumulation as learning resources - Best practice sharing: Company-wide deployment of success cases - External learning: Active research of other company cases and industry trends - Continuous improvement: Regular KPT cycle implementation

Phase 3: Sustainable Growth Engine Establishment (Ongoing)

KPT Balance Monitoring System: - Monthly KPT reviews: Confirmation of each department's KPT execution status - Balance indicators: Maintain Keep 60%, Problem 25%, Try 15% - Result measurement: Quantitative and qualitative evaluation of Try activities - Organizational culture diagnosis: Continuous measurement of challenge motivation

Target Setting: - Try execution rate: 0% → 15% (achieving healthy level) - New product development: 5 annually → 20 annually (4x increase) - New market entry: 0 annually → 2-3 annually - Employee challenge motivation: 35% → 75% (doubling)

Investment Plan: - Try promotion investment: ¥800M annually - Expected revenue effect: ¥2.5B annually - Investment recovery period: 1 year - Medium-long term ROI: 300%

"The key is not 'not fearing failure' but 'actively making good failures.' Through KPT balance recovery, organizations regain motivation for growth."

Chapter 6: Revival of Challenges — Conclusion of Volume XVII "The Challenge of Reproducibility"

Fifteen months later, the final report arrived from AsiaFood Dynamics. This was simultaneously the conclusion of Volume XVII "The Challenge of Reproducibility."

Results of Organizational Transformation through KPT Rebalancing:

KPT Balance Normalization: - Keep: 95% → 58% (achieving appropriate level) - Problem: 5% → 27% (active improvement) - Try: 0% → 15% (challenge culture revival)

Dramatic Business Results Improvement: - Annual growth rate: 2% → 18% (9x growth acceleration) - New product development: 5 items → 22 items (4.4x increase) - New market entry: 0 cases → 3 cases (3 Southeast Asian countries) - Market share: 12th place → 6th place (6-rank improvement)

Try Culture Establishment Results:

Challenge Activity Activation: - Employee proposal count: 5 monthly → 45 monthly (9x increase) - Experimental projects: 0 annually → 18 annually - Innovative ideas: 0 monthly → 12 monthly - External partnerships: 1 annually → 8 annually (startup collaborations)

Learning Organization Realization: - Failure case database: 85 cases accumulated (company-wide learning utilization) - Success case sharing: 3 monthly best practice deployments - Employee skill improvement: +180% improvement in new technology acquisition - Organizational adaptability: 3x improvement in market change response speed

Organizational Culture Transformation: - Challenge motivation: 35% → 82% (significant improvement) - Failure tolerance: 85% agree "don't fear failure" - Innovation: 78% agree "company is innovative" - Job satisfaction: +45% improvement (increased challenge opportunities)

Specific Success Cases:

New Product Development Success (Plant-Based Foods): - Initially rejected proposal realized through re-challenge - ¥1.2B revenue achieved 6 months after market launch - Successful new customer segment development

New Market Entry Success (Southeast Asia): - Gradual expansion from small-scale experiments - Rapid entry through local partner collaborations - First-year revenue ¥2.5B (double the plan)

DX Promotion Success (AI Quality Management): - Effect proven through pilot experiments - Company-wide deployment achieved quality improvement + efficiency - ¥700M annual cost reduction effect

Employee Voice Changes:

Mid-level Manager (45 years old): "Now when I propose new ideas, people ask 'How can we make this happen?' in a positive manner. Since failures are evaluated as learning opportunities, I can challenge with peace of mind."

Young Employee (28 years old): "A project I worked on during Try time was actually commercialized, and I feel very rewarded. I can feel the company growing."

Product Development Staff (38 years old): "We can now develop 22 new products annually. Having a system that can quickly respond to market needs makes me fulfilled as a developer."

Tanaka's letter contained deep gratitude and sense of achievement:

"Through KPT rebalancing, we transformed from 'status quo maintenance safe zone' to 'challenging growth company.' We were able to embody Volume XVII's theme 'The Challenge of Reproducibility.' Most important was understanding that not challenging is the greatest risk, rather than fearing failure. By recovering KPT balance, we gained the reproducibility of sustained growth. Now every day is full of new possibilities, and all employees are challenging toward the future."

Epilogue: Volume XVII "The Challenge of Reproducibility" Conclusion

Detective's Final Consideration — What Is True Reproducibility

On the final night of Volume XVII, I reflected on this long exploration spanning 10 cases.